Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
